Why subscribe?
This newsletter is a look into my full risk management process for navigating the energy markets. I combine fundamental, market and equity analysis to optimize investment and capital allocation decisions. My goal is to help anyone working in and around the industry to navigate the volatile cycles across all energy markets. I will cover crude oil, natural gas, refined products, renewables and associated auxiliary services within each of those segments (and potentially more).
Data Driven Process
Every investment or capital allocation decision I make is anchored in what the data is saying. Narratives without data are often constructed as reasons to make investment, or capital allocation decisions. I have found that “process” to be ineffective at best, and counter productive at worst. My process is a repeatable multi-factor, multi-duration process with Bayesian Inference at the core.
Transparency and accountability
My process is continually evolving, and I will change my views when the data changes. This is a difficult concept for those who take a more dogmatic approach to investing and capital allocation decisions. I will always admit when I am wrong, and work as diligently and expeditiously as possible to determine the best path forward. One thing I pride myself on is never deleting any tweets. I have found this adds an element of accountability that enhances my overall process. My portfolio consists of long/short energy equities, and I may have positions in securities I cover.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All of the views are my own, and not representative of Donovan Ventures, LLC or Energy Founders Fund, L.P.
