Timing mismatch between supply and demand growth leading to increased probability of crude oil prices nearing demand destruction levels in 22'
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Transitory supply chain constraints across U.S. shale likely delay supply acceleration until 2H22'
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Sustainability of bullish crude cycle will be tested in 22'
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Fundamentals remain constructive, while market signals waver.
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Much cooler weather needed for front-month upside, back-end remains attractive.
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Fundamental shift in domestic mobility likely a secular tailwind for oil demand
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Positive demand momentum critical for oil and energy equities into 4Q
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First in a series of posts introducing my risk management process for energy cycles, driven by data.
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Numbers, not narratives.